MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-08T00:02:12
The high energy electron fluence (greater than 2MeV) is also expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the next four days. This is reflected in the output of the REFM model which shows continued low levels. With the arrival of the next high speed stream there is the chance that flux levels will rise above the Active threshold on Day 4, but the most likely impact of this will be after the end of the forecast period. This is supported by the 27-day persistence, which rose on the equivalent of Days 5 and 6.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-04-08T00:02:12 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |