MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-01T00:13:55
With solar winds near ambient levels in the forecast period, there is not expected to be the impetus to increase electron counts above current levels. So, while the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) may rise above the Active threshold at the peak of the diurnal cycle, the general trend is for a continued downward drift. The corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the four-day period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-05-01T00:13:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |