MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-02T00:21:52
With solar winds near ambient levels in the forecast period, there is not expected to be the impetus to increase electron counts above current levels. The decaying trend day-on-day appears to have stalled, perhaps indicating equilibrium with the current solar wind speed near 400 km/s, with flux ranging within moderate levels. The corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the four-day period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-05-02T00:21:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |