MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-25T00:23:15
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to remain at mainly high levels (above 1000pfu) throughout the period, perhaps with some reductions on days 2 and 3 (26th and 27th) in response to any enhanced geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole effects.
The corresponding fluence, currently well above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), is showing a slowly declining trend, and may dip below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) later on day 2 or day 3 (26th and 27th) should there be any enhanced geomagnetic activity in response to a High Speed Stream from CH91.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-04-25T00:23:15 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 40% |
| Day 2 | 75% | 30% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 20% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 20% |