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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-25T00:23:15

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to remain at mainly high levels (above 1000pfu) throughout the period, perhaps with some reductions on days 2 and 3 (26th and 27th) in response to any enhanced geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole effects.

The corresponding fluence, currently well above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), is showing a slowly declining trend, and may dip below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) later on day 2 or day 3 (26th and 27th) should there be any enhanced geomagnetic activity in response to a High Speed Stream from CH91. 


 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-04-25T00:23:15
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 40%
Day 2 75% 30%
Day 3 60% 20%
Day 4 60% 20%