MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-25T00:40:28
The high energy electron flux will start at low to moderate levels, and is then expected to show a gradual but slight increasing trend over the next few days. The high energy flux is likely to temporarily exceed the Active threshold (1000 pfu) during the daily diurnal cycle. The corresponding 24 hour integrated electron fluence is, however, likely to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1) throughout. The REFM model is currently a good guide for Day 1.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-05-25T00:40:28 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |