MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-24T00:17:29
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to show a slight increasing trend, at least at first during the period, in response to slightly enhanced solar winds, perhaps venturing past the high threshold (1000pfu) during the diurnal peaks. The corresponding 24 hour integrated electron fluence is, however, likely to remain below the active threshold (1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1) at least during days 1, 2 and 3 (23rd to 25th). The REFM model is currently a good steer for Day 1.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-05-24T00:17:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |