MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-23T00:02:57
The high energy electron flux at geosynchronous Earth orbit (greater than 2MeV) is likely to remain below the Active threshold with the solar wind speed declining. The corresponding 24-hour fluence will also most likely remain below the Active threshold throughout the period. This is supported by the output of the REFM model which shows below Active fluence through the days 1 to 3. The REFM recurrence also points to low levels persisting for the coming period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-06-23T00:02:57 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |