MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-16T00:09:14
In the coming days, the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background to moderate levels. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the forecast period, with a continued slow declining trend.
The REFM electron fluence forecast is considered correct in predicting fluence levels to remain below the Active threshold, with a downward trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-06-16T00:09:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |