MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-09T00:29:33
The high energy electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is currently at moderate to high levels. Diurnal peaks to high levels are expected to continue over the coming days, although with a slow decline likely as solar winds remain at background levels. On day 4 (June 12) a slight increase in geomagnetic activity due to a weak coronal hole high speed stream may lead to a further decrease.
The high energy electron fluence is currently just below the Active threshold, although has started to show a decreasing trend. With no significant enhancements in the solar wind expected, the electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-06-09T00:29:33 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |