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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-09T00:29:33

The high energy electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is currently at moderate to high levels. Diurnal peaks to high levels are expected to continue over the coming days, although with a slow decline likely as solar winds remain at background levels. On day 4 (June 12) a slight increase in geomagnetic activity due to a weak coronal hole high speed stream may lead to a further decrease. 

The high energy electron fluence is currently just below the Active threshold, although has started to show a decreasing trend. With no significant enhancements in the solar wind expected, the electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold.  

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-06-09T00:29:33
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 10% 1%
Day 2 10% 1%
Day 3 5% 1%
Day 4 1% 1%