Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-02T00:15:18

The likelihood of seeing Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence is now very much increased, with the current high speed stream from coronal hole 98 faster than anticipated at around 750km/s peak. The magnitude of the IMF and solar wind density are now relatively low, meaning the chance of further knock-backs in counts from G1 activity are reduced. Should current High peak flux levels be maintained, Active fluence is expected on day one. STEREO A data suggests a three-day duration for peak wind speed, helping to maintain levels reached on day one through to the start of the coming working week before beginning to wane. The chances of Very Active fluence are felt to be slight given the magnitude of response seen so far.