MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-03T00:12:48
With solar winds near ambient levels through days 1-3 (3rd-5th May) there is not expected to be any increase electron counts above current levels with flux ranging within moderate levels. However, on day 4 a fast solar wind from coronal hole 93 is expected to pass earth, this may result in electrons exceeding the 1000pfu threshold.
The corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout the four-day period, perhaps rising a little later on day 4 (6th May).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-05-03T00:12:48 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 5% |