Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-03T00:11:25

The high energy electron flux is expected to remain in the Moderate to High range with a Chance of diurnal peaks to Very High levels. The corresponding 24-hour fluence also likely to continue High (5e8 integrated pfu) and may exceed Very High levels (1e9 integrated pfu) from Day 2 onwards.

As the solar wind declines, but remains elevated, the high energy electron fluence in the outer Van Allen belt at geosynchronous orbit may well rise above Very High levels from Day 2 onwards, as occurred during the previous rotation in the second week of May. This scenario is supported by Met Office REFM output, which suggests a rise to Very High levels.