Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-10T00:19:12

The high energy electron flux has been showing diurnal variations between high and moderate values. However with solar winds at background levels, these values are likely to show a either a steady, or perhaps gradual decreasing trend to their peak. The next solar feature that is likely to bring any enhancement in flux will be the associated fast wind from coronal hole 01, most likely on day 4. However, any geomagnetic activity preceding this onset, will also lead to a period of much reduced flux values being observed.  Any subsequent enhancement is then likely to be relatively small, due to the narrow and diminishing nature of the coronal hole. 

The 24 hour integrated fluence levels are currently below the Active threshold (1e8 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1) and are expected to remain below this level, although there is a slightly increased chance of rising above by the end of day 4 due to the fast wind from coronal hole 01.