MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-03T00:18:25
The high energy (>2MeV) electron flux at GEO has continued at mainly high levels (>1000pfu) but at a steady rate, meaning 24-hour fluence levels have been in or around 2.4e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1 for a while now. With no additional input expected from coronal hole fast winds, the flux and fluence levels are likely to remain similar or slowly decline through the period, with an increasing chance of dropping below thresholds by Thursday.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-07-03T00:18:25 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |