MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-02T00:27:38
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background to moderate levels through the period. This is expected to continue through the forecast period, as winds remain largely at background levels. There may be a temporary decrease late on day 4 associated with any increased geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole 13 high speed stream.
The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain roughly at current values, with no significant increases or decreases in the forecast period, remaining well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-08-02T00:27:38 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |