MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-09T00:12:13
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels, with the corresponding 24-hour fluence well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). Whilst some modest enhancements in the solar wind could lead to flux values trending upwards, persistence from the previous rotation suggests that diurnal peaks will remain well below the high threshold. So whilst the corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to show a slow rising trend through the period, it should remain well below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-08-09T00:12:13 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |