Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-16T00:25:55

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is currently at background levels, and likely to remain so at first on day 1 (16th). However Flux levels are then expected to increase, becoming moderate to high, with high values at time of diurnal maximum. Whilst there is a chance of more general high values occurring, however the electron response on the previous solar rotation suggests that this will not be the case.

This will lead to the corresponding 24-hour fluence also rising from its current background levels, perhaps nearing the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) as electrons accumulate during from day 2 onward.