Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-17T00:16:02

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux has increased to moderate levels and is likely to rise further over the next few days, with diurnal peaks reaching high levels. However, the next CIR/HSS arrival, associated with CH17/- is expected at Earth on day 4 (20th), or possibly late day 3 (19th), and this is likely to give a temporary reduction. 

The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to show a gradual rising trend, with a chance of approaching the Active threshold by day 3 (19th). However, as mentioned above the arrival of the next high speed stream from CH17 on day 4 (20th) is likely to temporarily reduce fluence levels.