Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-24T00:00:25

The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at Active levels for much of the period. The corresponding fluence is expected to remain above the threshold, more especially at the diurnal maximum, but the trend in confidence is downwards towards Day 4. This is supported by the observations from the last rotation, despite the REFM forecast indicating a more rapid decline. However, there is lower confidence on Days 2 to 4 due to the expected CME arrival possibly disrupting the fluence in the outer Van Allen belts. The level of disruption will depend on the size of impact, which is likely to be fairly weak due to the CME speed broadly matching the background solar wind, and depend upon the magnetic orientation which is unknown at present.