Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-31T00:14:17

Electron counts remain very elevated from the recent high speed stream, with the high electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) reaching very high levels through the diurnal cycle since 28th Aug. This is expected again on day 1 (31st Aug) and perhaps again on day 2 (1st Sep), but with levels generally declining through this forecast period. Corresponding 24 hour fluence levels have remained above the very active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu) since 28th Aug, but are expected to see a steady decline through the next four days, although likely to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 pfu) through much of the period.

The general forecast of decreasing fluence from current MOSWOC Relativistic Electron Fluence Model data is considered correct, although considered too quick in taking values below the active threshold.