MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-07T00:26:52
The CIR ahead of coronal hole 22 passed the Earth late on 06 Sep, with little effect on the electron flux. An increase in electron flux is then expected due to the onset of the high speed stream from the coronal hole, with anticipated speeds in the range of 550-600km/s.
There is an increasingly likely risk of the electron fluence reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the forecast period in response to the increased electron flux.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-09-07T00:26:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 5% |