MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-08T00:43:54
Earth is currently experiencing the high speed stream from coronal hole 22, although this is gradually waning and so the high energy electron flux levels will also gradually decline. At the peak diurnal flux today there is a chance that the High threshold will be breached, but for most the time the flux will be at low to moderate levels during the forecast period. However, during day 4 the flux is likely to breach the High threshold as the next high speed stream arrives. The associated high energy electron fluence levels have been, and are expected to remain, below the High threshold. REFM is currently giving poor guidance, with the fluence levels expected to remain below the High threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-09-08T00:43:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |