Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-09T00:49:42

The flux levels of the high energy electrons will remain below the Active threshold (1000 pfu) for much of the time, but may just rise above during the diurnal maximum. The 24-hour fluence is likely to remain below the Active threshold through the period. The REFM model shows a gradual rise, day by day, but this is considered unlikely. Some enhancement in electron flux levels is also possible late on day 4, due to the onset of the high speed stream of coronal hole 22, however fluence levels are not expected to respond until day 5, beyond the forecast period.