Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-16T00:28:39

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently High, and expected to remain largely at this level through the period, although a brief fall is likely later on day 1 and into day 2 due to the influence of the incoming high speed stream.  Peak values are also expected to decline during day 3 and 4. This will ensure the associated fluence will initially be above the Very Active level.  However the potential period of lower flux levels on day 1, combined with declining peak values, is likely to lead to levels falling beneath this level by day 3. Despite this, these Active levels are currently expected to persist throughout. 

The REFM forecast continues to show a rising trend, however this doesn't account for the period of lower flux anticipated with the potential Van Allen belt compression that is likely due to the arrival of the incoming high speed stream. It follows that the forecast increase that this shows, particularly beyond T+24, is likely over-done, with such an increase over the current observed values not expected.