Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-16T00:04:04

The high energy electron flux has been at normal background to moderate levels, although with an upward trend, giving a diurnal peak of 761 pfu at 15/2225 UTC. The corresponding fluence has also showed a slight upward trend, but remains well below the Active threshold. Through the forecast period flux levels may diurnally peak into high levels on days 1 to 3 (16th to 18th), but are then likely to reduce on day 4 (19th), due to anticipated enhanced geomagnetic activity associated with coronal hole influence. Fluence levels are likely to rise over the next few days, and although are more likely to remain below the Active threshold, there is a chance of approaching or reaching the Active threshold on days 2 to 4.