Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-15T00:26:32

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to vary diurnally over the next four days, with gradually decreasing peaks into high (1e3pfu) levels as the high speed stream continues at background levels. This pattern may be disrupted on day 4 if coronal hole 47 becomes geoeffective, with a sharp fall possible due to geomagnetic enhancements followed by a steady recovery in electron flux values.

Corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence levels have been below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels but with a rising trend.  This increase appears to have now leveled out, with a decreasing risk of exceeding the threshold over the next four days in response to declining electron flux values.