Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-23T00:03:09

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is likely to remain below the Active period throughout, although it may get close to 1000 pfu at the peak of the diurnal cycle. The corresponding fluence is therefore also expected to remain below the Active threshold with insufficient solar activity to drive it higher. This is reflected in the REFM model output which suggests weak fluence levels throughout the next three days and levels well below the same period last month. The 27-day recurrence shows a gradual, although erratic drop through the period. Taken together this indicates that there is increasing confidence that fluence levels will remain low through the period.