MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-22T00:27:06
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at background levels. An increase to high levels is possible in a diurnal peak during day 2. Moderate to high levels are then possible on days 3 and 4, although this will be dependent on the geomagnetic activity experienced as a result of coronal hole 39 becoming geoeffective.
The electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold on days 1 to 2 (21 to 23 Oct). The Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold may then be reached late on day 3 or during day 4 as a result of the expected high speed stream from coronal hole 39
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-10-22T00:27:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |