Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-21T00:29:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background levels, but with a diurnal peak reaching close to moderate levels on 19 Nov. Any significant geomagnetic enhancements due to the onset of the high speed stream from one of the southern coronal holes could inhibit this increase either late on day one or during day 2. The flux may then reach high (1e3pfu) levels during diurnal peaks from late on day 2 onwards.

Corresponding electron fluence values are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a slightly increased chance of exceeding the threshold on days 3 and 4 in response to increased electron flux.