Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-20T00:24:00

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has fluctuated between background and moderate levels over the last 24 hours and is expected to follow a similar pattern through the forecast period. The flux levels will be inhibited further by any geomagnetic enhancements due to coronal hole effects on day 3, but could then perhaps reach high levels on day 4 if the Earth connects to a coronal hole high speed stream.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with the current declining trend expected to continue. This could then start to show a slight increase later on day 3 and into day 4 due to the coronal hole effects described above, with a very low risk of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.