MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-27T00:01:02
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 Mev) is expected to remain at near background levels. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to remain well below the Active threshold (near to 1e6 integrated pfu) throughout. Both the 27-day recurrence and the forecast model suggest low levels will persist through the forecast period. The next significant enhancement in flux & fluence levels is likely on Day 6 or 7.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-11-27T00:01:02 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 3% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |