MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-28T00:11:14
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) in the outer Van Allen belt at GEO orbit is likely to remain at background levels with only limited diurnal enhancements. Further high speed stream influences are possible on day 4( 31st), but no significant increase in electron counts would be expected during this forecast period. The associated high energy electron fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold, as shown by current REFM data.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-10-28T00:11:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |