Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-21T00:15:15

The high energy electron flux has persisted at Moderate to high values, with diurnal peaks climbing just above 1e3 pfu. This has led to the electron fluence remaining at background levels, below the 1e8 24 hour integrated pfu Active threshold. These levels are likely to persist through days 1 to 3, as whilst there is a slight chance of some enhancement from a coronal hole high speed stream on day 1, this is likely to be weak, with minimal effect if it occurs.

A further enhancement is then likely day 4, as the high speed stream of coronal hole 39 becomes established, however this is currently low confidence, as this is a new coronal hole, with uncertain arrival timings and strength. Despite this, there is a slight chance of Active electron fluence developing by the end of the day.