Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-20T00:07:45

The flux of high energy electrons will start at moderate or high levels today (20 Oct), before temporarily dropping to background levels later today, as a result of possible slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity. Diurnal peaks may recover to reach or exceed the Alert threshold (1e8pfu) during days 2 and 3 (21 and 22 Oct). The corresponding fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold today (20 Oct), but is likely to increase slightly on days 2 and 3 (21 and 22 Oct), close to but likely just below, the Active threshold.

The Met Office REFM model continues to under-estimate the current fluence levels, although the trend showing minor fluctuations looks reasonable. Fluence values are anticipated to continue close to, but likely just below, the Active threshold.