Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-13T00:08:55

The high energy electron flux (>2Mev) is forecast to remain high (>1e3 pfu) through much of the four day period but may reduce during days 3 and 4 (15 and 16 Oct), if there is any increase in geomagnetic activity disrupting the charging of the Van Allen belts. The solar wind high speed stream from positive Coronal Hole 34 has now waned and this will assist in the process of slowly reducing flux levels.

The high energy electron fluence is forecast to be above the Very High threshold (1e9 pfu) for much of day 1 (13 Oct) with a slow decline over the following three days, and could conceivably remain above the high threshold (>5e8 pfu) until day 4 (14 Oct). With flux levels likely to reduce this will give a downward trend in fluence levels.