Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-12T00:23:25

Very Active electron flux is expected during the peak of the diurnal cycle through much of the forecast period, with the corresponding fluence remaining above Active, and most likely above the Very Active threshold. Both the REFM guidance and the 27-day persistence suggest that Active or Very Active levels will persist through the forecast period, which is considered to be good guidance. However, the flux and so therefore the fluence levels may decline at the end of the forecast period if slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity occurs, creating disturbances in the force fields in the outer Van Allen belts.