Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-11T00:02:37

Very Active electron flux is expected during the top of the diurnal cycle through the forecast period, with the corresponding fluence remaining above Active, and near the Very Active threshold. Both the REFM forecast and the 27-day persistence, suggest that Active or Very Active levels will persist through the forecast period, even extending out to 10 days. However, the fluence has dropped slightly to near the Very Active threshold. This is probably because the ongoing geomagnetic activity has produced disturbances in the force fields in the outer electric Van Allen belts. But as the solar wind becomes more settled in the next day or so it is likely that the flux levels will respond by increasing in strength at geosynchronous orbit level. Probabilities given in the table above for breach of the Very Active threshold reflect this expectation.