Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-18T00:47:02

The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) reached high levels during the diurnal peak on 17 Oct and is expected to remain at moderate or high levels on day 1 (18 Oct). There is then a chance that the flux will fall in response to any increased geomagnetic activity from coronal hole effects on day 2 (19 Oct), then picking up again through days 3 and 4 (20 and 21 Oct) to peak at high levels again. The corresponding fluence is likely to remain below thresholds on days 1 and 2 (18 and 19 Oct.), rising on day 3 and 4 with a chance of reaching the Active threshold.