MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-17T00:15:35
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) exceeded the high threshold during the diurnal peak today and is expected to remain at moderate or high levels through days 1 and 2. There is then a chance that the flux will fall in response to any increased geomagnetic activity from coronal hole effects from late on day 2 onwards.
The corresponding fluence is likely to rise towards the Active threshold on days 1 and 2, but then decrease on days 3 and 4 in response to any significant fall in electron flux from enhanced geomagnetic activity. Therefore the chance of reaching the Active threshold is greatest on day 1, before decreasing through the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-10-17T00:15:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |