MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-24T00:18:23
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at mainly moderate levels, with brief oscillations into the high (1e3pfu) level on diurnal peaks.
Corresponding electron fluence levels are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with a negligible chance of exceeding the threshold later in the period if the Earth connects with the high speed stream from negative coronal hole 41.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-10-24T00:18:23 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |