MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-23T00:19:57
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) was at background levels throughout the past 24 hours, and in the absence of any significant high speed streams these levels are expected to continue throughout the forecast period, perhaps with levels reaching moderate at peaks of the diurnal cycle.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is now well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), in the order of 1e6 integrated pfu, and is expected to remain at similar levels throughout the forecast period, perhaps with a slow rising trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-11-23T00:19:57 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |