MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-25T00:28:28
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background levels. This may increase to mainly moderate levels on day 1 if the Earth connects with the high speed stream from coronal hole 41. Any connection is likely to be relatively weak so any increases to high (1e3pfu) would most likely be limited to diurnal peaks in the daily oscillations. Resultant 24-hour electron fluence levels are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period, with a negligible chance of exceeding the threshold later in the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-10-25T00:28:28 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 2% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |