Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-31T00:30:58

The high energy electron flux is currently at ambient background levels, leading to the fluence also remaining at background, as suggested by REFM. The next potential enhancement would be from any fast wind associated with coronal hole 42. This is anticipated to arrive imminently on day 1, however this is likely to a relatively weak feature, with only minimal increase in electron flux levels anticipated. 

Beyond this, the next enhancement is likely either later day 4 or into day 5 from the arrival of coronal hole 44. Persistence does suggest a significant enhancement of electron flux levels from this coronal hole, potentially reaching very high. However the initial washout of electron levels from any geomagnetic activity that occurs during the high speed stream onset, coupled with the later arrival time on day 4, should ensure fluence levels remain below the Active (1e8) threshold.