Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-02T00:25:01

The high energy electron flux is expected to remain mainly below the Active threshold level throughout, although it may occasionally rise above the Active level at the peak of the diurnal cycles. There is unlikely to be any solar wind activity sufficient to lead to a rise on Days 1 to 2. The corresponding high energy electron fluence is also expected to remain below the Active threshold, but with reducing confidence later in the period. If the next high speed stream arrives early there is a stronger chance that fluence levels will rise towards the Active threshold later on Day 3 or during day 4. The REFM model suggests weak rise, but remaining below the Active threshold, as is the 27-day recurrence which suggests below Active levels in the corresponding forecast period.