Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-03T00:14:53

The high energy electron flux has remained at moderate to background levels during the last 24 hours, and with no significant cause for further enhancement, there is only a slight chance of high values occurring at diurnal maximum during day 1 (3rd). On day 2 (4th), flux levels are likely to become suppressed for a time due to enhanced geomagnetic activity, before the high speed stream becomes established. There is then the potential for high electron flux values during day 3 (5th), and into day 4 (6th). This would then lead to the associated fluence levels rising, with a chance of exceeding the Active threshold through day 3.  The REFM model indicates the potential for an increasing trend, however this is currently deemed too fast, with Active levels unlikely until day 3.