Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-03T00:01:19

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to continue mainly above the Active threshold, but may dip below during the diurnal minimum. The associated 24-hour fluence is likely to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for most of the time. However, confidence declines through the period with the 27-day recurrence offering no guidance. The REFM forecast model suggests a declining trend, but is considered to have the fluence falling too fast with observations running above the Day 1 forecast. The low confidence in the forecast is reflected in the declining probabilities given here.