Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-04T00:03:38

The pattern in high energy electron flux remains elevated in the wake of last week's geomagnetic storms. The current solar wind environment is not capable of supporting such counts long-term, and as such a gradual decline from current Active 24-hour fluence is expected in the period. The timing of the exit is subject to doubt - almost certainly not as quick as REFM's suggestions because of the influence of a transient on the recent forecast and not on persistence alone. On balance, and assuming  the current rate of decrease persists, the transition ought to occur by day 3 (6 Sep). The influence from a coronal hole around this time is not likely to impact on the forecast until after the end of the forecast period, although probabilities of re-entering Active are likely to increase as a result.