MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-05T00:06:35
The 24-hour integrated fluence levels are expected to start above the active threshold (1e8pfu) at first on day 1 (5th), however the downward trend is expected to continue, falling below the active threshold later on day 1. Once the high speed stream from coronal hole 22 becomes established, likely by day 3 (7th), fluence levels should begin to increase once more, with a chance of rising above the active threshold on day 4 (8th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-09-05T00:06:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |