Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-29T00:05:55

The high electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to continue at Very Active levels through much of the forecast period, especially at the maximum of the diurnal cycle. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain above the Very Active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu) throughout much of the forecast period, but may decline slowly later on Days 3 and 4. The sharp fall on day 2 (30th Aug) shown on the REFM model is unlikely to occur. The most likely scenario is that the forecast will persist near to the Very Active threshold through the forecast period, but with reducing confidence by Day 3 and 4. The 27-day persistence doesn't help much with the forecast as the current elevated solar wind speed was not present on the previous rotation.