Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-22T00:29:16

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at mainly high levels over the last 24 hours. Based on persistence, this is expected to remain at high levels through the next four days as the influence of the HSS from coronal hole 17 continues. This however is dependent on any CME interactions.

In the absence of any significant geomagnetic activity, the corresponding electron fluence is likely to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) and to continue to rise through the next four days, with an increasing risk of the Very Active (1e9 integrated pfu) threshold being reached.